Straight From The Trainers Mouth
Straight
From The Trainers Mouth
 |
| Michel Le Bon is Paul Nicholls hope for the Welsh National |
Victor
Dartnall
3:20 Welsh
National – Giles Cross 10/1
Giles Cross did a
brilliant piece of work this morning and I’m hopeful he will run well in the
Welsh National on Saturday.
While it would have been ideal to get a run
into Giles Cross beforehand, it wasn't possible, but he has done a lot of work
and I'm pleased with him. He has won first time out in the past.He's a good horse and I don't know why he's 12-1
3:55 Chepstow - Seebright SP
I think Seebright
could be the horse to change our fortunes in the bumper.
Rebecca Curtis
3:20 Welsh National – Teaforthree 3/1
He should run really well. He loves it round there
and loves the soft ground, he jumps brilliant.
He's come out of the Hennessy really well. I don't
think he got too hard a race. That is sometimes a worry in the Hennessy. He's
bouncing at home and we're all set for it hopefully.
A
P McCoy
"I've seen that at the moment he's about 3/1
and then it's 7/1 bar and I just don't think there is that big a gap between
him and the rest of them, particularly with the ground the way it is.
"Last year he was being aimed at the Hennessy
and the Welsh National came as more of an after-thought but this time his
season has been very much geared around the Welsh National.
"The extra couple of weeks after Newbury might
have helped him and I hope he has got a good chance. He's a pretty easy horse,
touch wood he jumps well and he's a pretty handy sort.
"He doesn't have to lead but we'll pop out
handy and see how the race is run. Stamina is going to come into play and
hopefully he's got more than the rest of them."
Charlie
Longsdon
2:25
Chepstow – Pendra 7/1
3:20
Welsh National – Universal Soldier 14/1
It will be a
big day tomorrow with Pendra runing
in the Tolworth and Universal Soldier in
the Welsh National. I do not think I have ever had two such high profile
runners running within an hour of each other. I know they are both very nice
horses and can go close. To be honest I would not be scared of any of the
opposition in Pendra's race, on their form to date - we know we will be a
better horse in a better race, so it will be interesting to see how we get on.
The Welsh National is mighty competitive, but he has an eachway chance on
ground that he will love and a distance that should suit him.
David Pipe
3:20 Welsh National – Master Overseer 14/1 and Sona Sasta 8/1
The
big meeting however comes on Saturday when the rescheduled Welsh Grand National
meeting takes place at Chepstow. This has given us a little extra time
with Cheltenham Grade 3 chase winner Master Overseer who was scratched from the
original entries; however the extra week means that the race now falls nicely
into his training regime and he will go there under just a 4lbs penalty for
that success. He will be joined by Sona Sasta who at the latest
acceptance stage, scrapes in at the foot of the weights.
Both
love the mud and they stay all day, and on their best form, they both have a
chance
Barry
Garagthy
12:45
Sandown – Une Artiste 5/2
Apart
from the good vibes, this mare has won on very testing ground which I’m certain
it’s going to be on the hurdle track and in the past testing conditions haven’t
proved the best for Kells Belle.
I’m sure
she will have improved for her comeback run when I pulled her up at Kempton
over three but this just might be the day for Une Artiste.
The move
up to two and a half looks more than suitable and in her younger days in France
she won on heavy. She won well enough on better ground at Wetherby in early
November when Jerry McGrath rode her and although she only went up 1lb to 141 I
reckon there’s more to come.
The race
conditions mean that the one we’ve all got to beat is Kentford Grey Lady
who was second to Quevega at Cheltenham and won well over this course
and distance last time and is now only a couple of pounds inferior to Une
Artiste but gets a useful 8lb.
But the
noises from Seven Barrows have been very positive for my mare so you could say
I’m optimistic at the very least.
2:25 Sandown
- Royal Boy 7/2
This is a
horse that’s always been very highly thought of and he did nothing to change
anyone’s opinion on his first run over hurdles at Cheltenham last month having
won a point to point in March 2011.
He showed
a very good turn of pace going to the last and only just got outpaced near the
finish by Melodic Rendezvous who beat him three parts of a length having
had the benefit of a run.
Because
of the calibre of this race and it’s conditions that one doesn’t carry a
penalty so we’re on the same terms again but I’m expecting a good bit of
improvement from Royal Boy - enough for a reversal.
The one
that I’m more concerned about is Poet, who was a Group-class performer
on the Flat in the mud and really impressed me with his hurdle debut on very
heavy ground at Newbury last month.
He
reached 115 on the level and despite this being only his second run over
hurdles at the age of eight, he looks a big player to me.
I won on Golden
Hoof at Sandown last month and he’s got more to give but I just felt that
the very testing ground might not bring out his best in a better grade of race.
3:40 Sandown
– Triolo D’Alene 8/1
I admit
that I’m on a bit of a fact-finding mission on Triolo D’Alene in the
three-mile handicap chase.
I wasn’t
too disappointed with him last time at Sandown in early December when he
weakened after three out and finished third to Bold Sir Brian in a
listed intermediate chase.
He’d not
had the clearest of runs in the build up and will be better now. He coped with
the soft ground, which didn’t seem the case when he disappointed me in the
Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham in November and I’m hoping that the ground
will ride ok.
I’m sure
we haven’t seen the best of this horse and for that reason alone I’m happy to
do 10st 5lb and give him another chance over a trip that I’m pretty sure he
wants
Paul Nicholls
12:25 Chepstow - Sin Bin
Won two
of his three bumpers, and has run two nice races over course and distance,
showing a fair level of form each time. But he has looked a bit green still on
both occasions and has made mistakes at crucial times, so we have done a lot on
his jumping at home since his last run. Hopefully, he will be sharper in that
department today and I would hope that he would go close. Eleven Fifty Nine
is the one to beat.
13:00 Chepstow - Keppols Hill
Is a
smart recruit from the pointing field and he really should have been two from
two over fences, blundering badly at the last when looking set for a clear-cut
victory at Ffos Las and getting collared on the line, and then falling at the
last when a couple of lengths clear at Exeter last time. It was a bad fall last
time and you always want to see to how horses react on the track after such a
bad experience, and if they have lost any confidence. But we have given him a
nice break and he seems in good order. Is due a change of luck, and 3m on heavy
ground round here should suit him ideally. And if he had met the last
correctly on both his chase starts this season, then he would have recorded a
level of ability that would see him as the clear form choice here. He has been
schooling in cheekpieces at home to help him concentrate, and he wears them here.
14:10 Chepstow - Cedre Bleu
Had a
breathing operation in the summer, but ran too free when a fair fourth in a
Newbury handicap first time up. So we fitted him with cheekpieces, as well as a
first time tongue tie, in a graduation race in heavy ground over 2m6f at Ascot
last time and he won a bit snugly. That race may not have taken that much
winning with his main rival Solix disappointing, but he did it well and the handicapper
has been sensible and left him on the same mark as Newbury. You can
never be sure how horses will cope with heavy ground here, but I'd be hopeful
of a big run.
12:25 Chepstow - Sin Bin
Won two
of his three bumpers, and has run two nice races over course and distance,
showing a fair level of form each time. But he has looked a bit green still on
both occasions and has made mistakes at crucial times, so we have done a lot on
his jumping at home since his last run. Hopefully, he will be sharper in that
department today and I would hope that he would go close. Eleven Fifty Nine
is the one to beat.
13:00 Chepstow - Keppols Hill
Is a
smart recruit from the pointing field and he really should have been two from
two over fences, blundering badly at the last when looking set for a clear-cut
victory at Ffos Las and getting collared on the line, and then falling at the
last when a couple of lengths clear at Exeter last time. It was a bad fall last
time and you always want to see to how horses react on the track after such a
bad experience, and if they have lost any confidence. But we have given him a
nice break and he seems in good order. Is due a change of luck, and 3m on heavy
ground round here should suit him ideally. And if he had met the last
correctly on both his chase starts this season, then he would have recorded a
level of ability that would see him as the clear form choice here. He has been
schooling in cheekpieces at home to help him concentrate, and he wears them
here.
13:35 Chepstow - Caid Du Berlais
French
recruit who has already shown a level of form that would see him competitive
here, winning a hurdle and then finishing runner-up in two decent races at
Auteuil. The form of his placed efforts may not have worked out that well, but
I applied for a mark for him from the handicapper and was told 142, and that is
only 3lb behind Far West. I am not sure about that - and Timeform rate
him a lot lower than 142 - but Holly Evans, who rides both horses at home,
tells me there isn't much between them. We have kept him specifically for this
race, he already has decent form in the book and I expect a good run. But there
are loads of dangers in here and I was particularly taken by Tim Vaughan's Swnymor
when he won at Newbury; he could be the one to beat.
14:10 Chepstow - Cedre Bleu
Had a
breathing operation in the summer, but ran too free when a fair fourth in a
Newbury handicap first time up. So we fitted him with cheekpieces, as well as a
first time tongue tie, in a graduation race in heavy ground over 2m6f at Ascot
last time and he won a bit snugly. That race may not have taken that much
winning with his main rival Solix disappointing, but he did it well and the
handicapper has been sensible and left him on the same mark as Newbury.
You can never be sure how horses will cope with heavy ground here, but I'd be
hopeful of a big run.
14:45 Chepstow - Roger Beantown
Probably
should have won when second in a maiden hurdle over 2m1f here in November but
then disappointed in a handicap at Cheltenham last time. But is crying out for
a trip, and if that is the case then I would expect him to go close off a mark
of 122 here. This is his last run before he goes chasing.
15:20 Welsh National - Michel Le Bon
This has
been the target for him ever since he finished second to The Package in the
Badger Ales. And, although 4lb higher here, that looks fair enough after the
winner's subsequent fourth in a red-hot Hennessy and the fact that the pair
pulled 40-odd lengths clear of the third at Wincanton. In fact, he looks well
handicapped on that form. As ever, the trip and the ground are the nagging
doubts in a Welsh National - he has not raced on anything this heavy - but he
is best when fresh, and he seems in very good order at home. We will creep him
into the race and see what happens.
13:15 Sandown - For Two
Won a
hurdle at Autueil back in March and he arrived here as a big, strong horse very
much in the mould of Hinterland. And if anything, he is a much fitter and
stronger horse than when making a satisfactory debut for me when second to
Handazan at Aintree in October. So I would hope that you will see an improved
performance from him today. And, as this race has cut up a fair bit at the
overnight stage, I have to be hopeful of a big run from him.
13:50 Sandown - Domtaline
Ideally,
he probably wants 2m4f on good ground to show his best. But he didn't run too
badly when second to Kumbeshwar off levels in very testing ground over 2m at
Haydock in November, and the winner hasn't done the form any harm with good, if
distant, seconds to Sprinter Sacre and Sanctuaire on his last two starts. So we
take our chance again here, although I don't think he is especially well
handicapped.
15:00 Sandown - Valco De Touzaine
As a 4yo,
he gets a 12lb allowance here, so is potentially fairly treated. And I was very
pleased with his second over course and distance on his debut for me last
month; granted, the winner ran poorly behind Irish Saint at Kempton last time
but the pair pulled 18 lengths clear of the third at Sandown and don't forget we
were running under a double penalty there as well. I have been pleased with him
at home since and I can see him going really well in what is clearly a very
competitive handicap. One of my best chances of the day, in fact.
15:40 Sandown - Royal Charm
We were
toying with the Welsh National for him but I wasn't convinced he needs
3m5f110yd in testing ground, so we come here instead. And don't forget that
this is a very valuable £50,000 handicap in its own right. We have been mixing
and matching him over hurdles and fences this season and he was beaten under
two lengths by leading Chepstow fancy Sona Sasta at that course last time. He
races off the same mark here and has a nice racing weight with 10st 5lb;
I give him a good each way chance.
12:55 Wincanton - Benvolio
Winner of
an Irish point, and is a nice staying chaser in the making. Hasn't shown too
much over hurdles yet, but there was obviously more promise in his third at
Newton Abbot last time. Is unproven on the ground and needs to improve a fair
bit to win this. Is eligible for handicaps after this, which will give him
better winning opportunities than these types of races offer at this stage of
his career. He does look fantastic at the moment, though.
13:30 Wincanton - Grandioso
I was
worried about running him in soft ground over course and distance last time but
he won that Beginners' Chase nicely, so we take our chance again in similar
conditions, even if I think he is essentially a good ground horse. The race has
really cut up, and of his two rivals, Tony Star looks the one to beat.
14:05 Wincanton - Landscape
We have
to strike while the iron is hot with Landscape, as the handicapper is sure to
have something to say after his win at Taunton last weekend. He may have only
won by ½ length, but the front two pulled 18 lengths clear of the third. In
fact, he effectively races off a 2lb lower mark today, as he doesn't get a
penalty for that conditionals race win and Harry can claim 5lb today, as
opposed to 3lb at Taunton. Well handicapped, over 2m4f, on a flat track
on heavy ground, he must have a big chance. The only negative is how he handles
the quick turnaround. But he looks fine and well in himself at home, so we have
little option but to run him today. Gevrey Chambertin looks the one to fear in
here.
14:40 Wincanton - Current Event
Is up 8lb
in the handicap courtesy of a seven length win at Kempton last time, which
clearly makes life harder. But he seemed to enjoy the return to front-running
tactics there, loves soft ground and has chances of following up.
Donald
McCain
Welsh
National.
Across
The Bay
Look,
he's got a lot of weight and I suppose it's going to be very hard for him to
win but there aren't many races for him and he should really appreciate the
conditions. He stays very well and he loves the mud so if he can get into a
rhythm, he should give a good account. I have thought he might be best in
smaller fields and dictating but he does have form in big fields over hurdles
and it's too valuable a race to ignore. He's got cheekpieces on here - you
could see the last day that he was thinking about things a bit but it's not
that he's ungenuine, he's just a bit lazy. Under the old whip rules you
wouldn't need the headgear, but anything that helps him concentrate a bit more
has to be a good thing.
Railway
Dillon
I have
thought that he is probably the type to do better when giving weight to
inferior rivals but with Haydock having been off the other day, plans had to
change slightly. He's been running respectably of late - he probably didn't
stay 4m last time - and we will try and be positive with him back over this
trip. He's not got a lot of weight but it looks a warm enough race - hopeful
rather than confident!
Overafrica
You can't
escape the fact that he's been disappointing over fences so we're going back
over hurdles with him. He seems well enough in himself and has got over his
race in the Towcester mud last time - this doesn't look a very good race and
he's not on a bad mark on the form he was showing last season.
Notimetowaste
She's
still very immature for her age and I think she will come on for this first run
- it's going to be very testing for these horses in the ground and Paul O'Brien
rides to take some weight off her back. Although I think she will come on for
the experience, I do think she's got ability and it's just a case of cracking
on with her.
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