Welsh National Preview 2012
WELSH NATIONAL NOW MOVED TO THE 5TH OF JANUARY 2013
1. Tidal Bay 12/1 – Horse that comes here in
great form even though he is 11 now. Goes very well on soft and has won over 3m
6f on soft. Not really tested on heavy, but that shouldn’t pose a problem. Paul
Nicholls and Ruby Walsh have been in great form recently too, which is an added
bonus. He is shortlisted, but is top weight, so that could be an issue.
2. Hold On Julio 20/1 – I personally am going to
rule him out. Although his trainer thinks very highly of him. In his last race,
his jumping was patchy and ultimately he unseated Robert Thornton. After that
race his trainer said he now needs a confidence boost and they looked at
putting him back over hurdles. Also
ground is not certain either.
3. Quartz De Thaix 14/1 – Ground should not be a
worry, will be the furthest he has gone and on heavy is a big ask, but I cannot
see any reason why he cannot be there at the end. Venetia Williams horses have
been in great form recently too.
4. Cappa Bleu 25/1 – 10 year old who has buckets
full of stamina, 3rd in this race last year and 4th in
the Grand National in April, although he is getting on, he is a decent e/w
option on heavy ground.
5. Cannington Brook 16/1 – 5th in this
race last year, and ground will not be a problem. I think there could be a few
horses better though, although might scrape into the places.
6. Giles Cross 12/1 – I am not going to lie, this
horse for me has a fantastic chance. And I have already backed him. Was a leading contender for this years’ Grand
National until the ground dried out and
he was never travelling and ended being pulled up. Very lightly raced for a 10
year old, reason being is that he is a mudlark, and not many opportunities to
run on his kind of ground. Excellent 2nd here last year. He has the ability to improve on that.
7. Teaforthree 4/1 – Hot favourite for this race,
he is another horse who will want testing ground. The wetter the better.
Trainer has been in brilliant form recently, although champion jockey AP now
out of action and unable to ride, Tom Scudamore takes over the reigns, but he
has been in good form himself. Teaforthree can run all day too. Maybe a win for
the Welsh?
8. Michael Le Bon 9/1 – ground should be fine,
and although has not gone this far before, I do not think it would be an issue.
Ryan Mahon is booked to ride which says the horse is not the yards first string.
9. Soll 20/1 – Unproven over this type of
distance, although ground is what the horse needs. I would be surprised if he won
this, however that’s not saying he couldn’t get into the places. Has run over
the longer distance on ground not suitable. Could surprise.
10. Universal Soldier 14/1 – goes well on soft,
looks like he will go further, just cannot be sure, if the horse would like
very testing conditions. Bit of an unknown for me.
11. Alfie Spinner 14/1 – Another mud-lover, should
stay too. Although all depends on how he came out of his last race after sending
Jockey Mark Quinlan out the back door.
12. Katenko 33/1 – Bit risky this one. Goes well
on Heavy, but hasn’t won further than 2m 6f.
13. Royal Charm 20/1 – Another risky one, heavy
ground not an issue, however has never won further than 2m 2f. Also has only
ever won round Exeter, which in itself is a very testing track.
14. Viking Blond 8/1 – PU here last year, but does
like Chepstow and form here reads 2, 1, 1, P. However both times he has
attempted this distance he has pulled up. So it’s a tough one to decide. It
might be that this distance is just slightly too far. Ground is fine.
15. Major Malarkey 25/1
– Cannot see the horse winning, however he has plenty of stamina, and that is
what will be needed here. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets into the places.
16. Jadanli 33/1 – Only
ever won on heavy ground, but I think would be hard pushed to make the
placings.
17. Mon Mome 33/1 – Hasn’t won since beating
Comply Or Die in the 2009 Grand National at 100/1, Heavy ground ok, but he is
not the horse he was when winning the Grand National, saying that, he wasn’t
much of a horse before that either. As he showed back then, he has the ability
on a very good day. Oldest horse in the race too, which counts as a negative.
18. Triggerman 40/1 – Tempermental issues, jumping
issues and ground issues. Stamina ok, but more negatives than positives for me
19. Monbeg Dude 14/1 – Beat promising chaser
Bradley last time out by a neck. Might be that this is strecthing his stamina
in heavy ground. Could scrape into the places though.
20. Harouet 25/1 – has won over 3m 2f on heavy
ground, certainly goes on the ground and could scrape into the places, but I
like others.
21. Sona Sasta 9/1 – won
here last time over 3miles on heavy ground. Bit of a step up in distance and
has the stamina. Although he has never
won over 3 miles. Very well off in the weights.
22. Our Island 33/1 – Beaten into 3rd
by Arbor Supreme last time out over futher on heavy ground. More needed here,
but has loads of stamina.
23. Cool Operator 33/1 – Low in the weights and
jockey claiming 7lbs as well. Won very nicely last time out on Heavy over 3m
2f. Although more needed here, this horse has run twice on heavy and won twice.
24. Mark The Book 50/1 – yet another Mud-lover but
only ever won over 3 miles. Big ask at this level
25. Incentivise 40/1 – ground ok, and distance ok,
but another horse that could just be out of his league here.
26. Arbor Supreme 33/1 – Very nice win last time
out over further on heavy, and carrying lowest weight here. Could go ok but there are several better.
Plenty of horses will go on heavy ground, as usual it is a tough one, but 3 horses
stand out for me. It is really difficult to decide which other horses could
fill the 4th place and in my view any number of horses can do it.
Here are my choices.
1.
Giles Cross 12/1
2.
Teaforthree 4/1
3.
Cappa Bleu 25/1
4.
Cool Operator 33/1
5.
Arbor
Sureme 33/1
I hope this helps you, and you pick the winner.
TNT
@thenovicetipste
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