King George Preview 2012

With no Kauto Star this year, the race is as open as ever, and it promises to be a good one. Will Kauto Stone jump into his half-brothers shoes? Or will Long Run reclaim the title he once won in 2010?

Here is my guide to the runners in the race and my thoughts on their chances.

1.  Captain Chris 14/1 – 3^rd in this race last year behind Kauto Star. However this year I would be concerned about the ground, although last time out he won a Grade 2 in heavy ground, which was over 2m 3f and although the official going is soft, by the 26^th, and lots of rain forecast, expect  the ground to be heavy. And Captain Chris would be expected to get another 5f and I just think it might be a big ask against some of these horses. However if the ground dries out, then I would certainly give him a chance at a place at least.

2.  Champion Court 33/1 – As with Captain Chris I would worry about the ground over 3 miles. However he is consistent, and will not go down without a fight, I just think there might be a few horses more effective on this ground over the distance.

3.  Cue Card 11/2 – Very talented horse, only a 6 year old. Has won on soft ground, but over 2m 3f. Not raced on heavy before, but I cannot rule him out, because he is a good horse. After a nice break he came back in November to score by 26 lengths in a Grade 2 from Edgardo Sol over 2m 2f on good to soft.  But the handicapper put him up 8lbs for his troubles hefty but probably fair.

4.  For Non Stop 33/1 – Won a PTP 3 years ago over 3 miles on heavy ground. Was beaten last time out by Captain Chris on heavy ground, but was running on, I personally thought a couple furlongs more and he might have caught him. So could be an interesting runner, maybe best to watch the market, but could get in the places

5.  Grand Crus 9/1 – Very disappointing last time out, but there were excuses and since that race he has had a wind operation. Connections are waiting till the last minute to decide if he will run or not, as he will only run if 100%, but they report he is making pleasing progress at home on the gallops. Distance will not be a problem and he has won in soft ground but I think he would prefer the ground to be a bit drier, too soft and it will push him to his limits, and after a wind operation would that be wise?.

6.   Junior 25/1 – This horse has stamina on his side, and won over distance on heavy ground in a listed race last time out, and could get into the places although will need to improve on his last run to do that.

7.   Kauto Stone 8/1 – Ground and distance will be no problem, a light came on last time out in the Champion Chase at Down Royal, beating First Lieutenant over 3miles in soft ground. Really does have every chance if he can reproduce that run.

8.  Long Run 2/1 – Won this in 2011, ticks all the boxes, even the ground should not pose a problem. With Kauto Star out the equation this in theory should be his race. Never been out of the top 3 in his career and has never fallen.

9.  Riverside Theatre 5/1 – Runs very well fresh and after his summer break that’s what he will be. Stamina and ground will not be an issue, came 2^nd to Long Run in 2011, I do wonder if he had been fresh, how much closer he would have been to winning. Has every chance.

10.  The Giant Bolster 10/1 – 2^nd to Synchronised in the Gold Cup this year, and had a solid 3^rd in his comeback after his break, so will be fitter. Ground & Distance no problem although I think he probably performs better on better ground.

This is probably the toughest King George in 7 years, as Kauto Star has dominated the race since 2006. I think Long Run has every chance of winning, so does the market, but he is just too short for me personally. Although a win is a win.

The ground is going to prove interesting. I think it will be heavy by Wednesday, which makes everything harder. As you can rule out the good ground horses and go for the horses that do not mind the ground, but sometimes it can throw up a horse that actually goes very well in the mud even though it has never gone on anything heavier than good to soft. If I am honest I cannot decide between 3  horses, so below I will predict those in 1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd but In my opinion it is extremely close.  I will add a 4^th horse too, even though there are 10 runners.

1.       Kauto Stone 8/1

2.       Riverside Theatre 5/1

3.       Long Run 2/1

4.       Junior 25/1

Grand Crus could be up there to, however it is still doubtful he will run

I hope this helps you, and you pick the winner.