The Paddy Power Gold Cup
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| Al Ferof goes very well fresh and has a great chance |
1 1.
Poquelin 28/1–
Runner up in the race in 2009. Goes very well fresh and likes this track and
has won 5 times here. Ground and distance is his optimum, and he might get into
the places, will certainly outrun his odds, but there are better horses here
today
2 2.
Al
Ferof 9/1 – This horse is best when
fresh, he has won twice at Cheltenham and I can see him being up there at the
end. Came in late for training as he sustained a cut during his summer break,
but on Thursday, did some of his best work ever at home. Excellent chance
3 3.
Calgary
Bay 28/1 – Very tough ask as on his highest mark of his career. Ground,
track and distance all fine for this horse, but I would be surprised if he won
this. Maybe a chance at a place but there are too many better horses
4 4.
Hunt Ball
8/1 – What a horse he was last year. Went up his mark shot up from 69 to a
massive 157 when winning 7 races. This is his best distance, and I am not sure
he has stopped improving, with a 3rd in Grade 1 Chase at Aintree, he
is one who has a chance
5 5.
Grand Crus
9/4 – Todays favourite, and rightly so. Discount his last run at Cheltenham
as something was clearly amiss with him. But this horse is good, and on a good
mark too. Trainer thinks he has a great chance today.
6 6.
Quantitativeeasing
25/1 – Nicky Henderson’s 3rd string here. Another horse on a
career high mark, and will have it all to do. I cannot see him in the top 5
7 7.
Aerial
33/1 – This is Paul Nicholls 3rd string. 4th here
last year, but now 11lbs higher and there are better unexposed horses in this
race.
8 8.
Tanks For
That – NR
9 9.
Forpadydeplasterer
20/1 – Hasn’t won since 2009, but has been consistent in coming runner up
since then. There are younger better horses in this race, but a place is not
impossible
1 10.
Nadiya De
La Vega 16/1 – Conditions will be fine here. And after 10 months off the
track, came back with a solid win. Will come on from that and has very good
place claims.
1 11.
Michael
Flips 20/1 – 4th to Sir Des Champs in March at Cheltenham. I
think there could be a few slightly better horses here, but he could have a
squeak at the places
1 12.
Walkon
8/1 – Drop in distance is a good thing for him and a 5lb drop in the
weights is a big advantage. I am not sure he could win, but I would expect to
see him there at the end.
1 13.
The
Disengager 50/1 – Richard Johnson has a 67% strike rate for The Disengagers
owners. But this horse intrigues me a bit, because I do think he could stay up
there at the end. He is a front runner, and this is although a lot tougher, he
is still progressing. And at 50/1 I could be tempted e/w as they are paying 5
places.
1 14.
Divers
20/1 – 3rd in this last year, and only 6lbs higher. Could get
into the places, but he didn’t really inspire after a break coming in 104
lengths behind Nadiya De La Vega, and I think is better after several runs
after a break.
1 15.
Triolo D’Alene
12/1 – Very lightly raced. 29 Lengths behind Hunt Ball at Cheltenham in
March, but Barry Geragthy said his “wind wasn’t right”, and there is now 13lbs
on Hunt Ball, which although on paper
will not make a difference, Triolo D’Alene is on a very good mark and has a lot
of improvement in him also Barry Geragthy has to get dow to 10st 1lb, his words
“It takes something special for me to do that light and I’m very hopeful that
this will be worthwhile.”
1 16.
Kingsmere
33/1 – Jumping hasn’t been great, and would need to improve to get into
places here. If a nice round then he could be up there, but I think there are
much better jumpers here
1 17.
Casey Top
50/1 – Another front runner, but I am not sure he will get his way. 50/1 is
about right and I cannot see him there at the end.
1 18.
Finger On
the Pulse 50/1 – 3rd to Nadiya De La Vega at Cheltenham last
time out, might give them a run for their money but he will probably be behind
Nadiya De La Vega again
1 19.
Questions
Answered 66/1 – probably needs further, should out runs odds though
2 20.
Gilbarry
100/1 – 100/1 is about right
My
Prediction
1.
Al Ferof 9/1
2.
Triolo D’Alene 12/1
3.
Grand Crus 9/4
4.
Nadiya De Le Vega 16/1
5.
The Disengager 50/1
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