Qatar Prix de l´Arc de Triomphe - Quick Rundown
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| Great Heavens can win today |
So, one of the biggest races of the year is upon us. At 3:25
today on the outskirts of Paris. Some of the best race horses in the world will
line to see who is a true champion. However conditions have been deteriorating
at the course and the going is now officially Heavy.
This could have a significant factor on the outcome of the
race.
Going through the list of runners, it splits the field
literally in half. The list of horses on my no go list are
Yellow and Green 20/1 - Only ever raced on Good to Soft, I cannot
see that more juice in the ground will help the horse
Saonois 9/1 – Has
won on very soft but as he was the only runner, you cannot compare, however
last run on very soft he was 4th of 6 runners
Ernest Hemingway
250/1 – Only ran twice and was probably put in as pacemaker in this race.
No chance at all
Camelot 4/1 – I
can see you are surprised, but my reasons are valid. Ok so I can hear you
saying he has won on soft/heavy ground,
but never travelled in the race and beat a small field of nothing in
particular. It was clear he hated the going and I cannot see him suddenly
enjoying the ground here. And he will need more than just his pure class to get
him home in front today.
Robin Hood 500/1 –
Poor horse is yet again a pacemaker for Camelot, although I do not think he
will mind the going as much as Camelot, he still has no chance though.
Aventino 500/1 –
Obvious pacemaker for Orfevre. Never run on ground like this before. Has no
chance.
Bayrir 22/1 –
Never run on ground as heavy as this, I would be surprised if he would like
anything worse than Good to Soft
Masterstroke 12/1
– Possibility he might like the heavy going, but I think he will need a lot
more to beat some of the others
Sea Moon 10/1 – Has
won a Maiden on heavy but Good to Soft seems to be the worse ground he can cope
with, I worry that any softer and in this race there will be others better.
Also Sea Moon has a good turn of foot and that suggests the firmer the better.
Meandre 20/1 –
Can go ok on softer ground, 6th last year, has possible place
claims, but I doubt will improve too much on 6th this year
So my next list is the horses I would put in as having a chance.
There are 3 pacemakers in the race, but this is going to be less about a strong
pace and more about who has the biggest heart to get home, as it will be a slog
to the end.
St Nicholas Abbey –
14/1 – This horse seems to go on most surfaces, although the firmer the
better. Good servant for connections, is he good enough to win? Possibly not,
but he could get into the places
Orfevre 5/1 – Has
won on soft, but not truly tested on anything this soft. I think he might have
his work cut out, but he could be classy enough to go well
Shareta 12/1 – 2nd
last year, and although the ground will not be ideal, she is a lot stronger
than last year, and has been very consistant on soft to heavy conditions. She
could be up there once again, and could possibly get her nose in front,
although is think she is safer as e/w. If conditions improve suddenly then she
would have a great chance, but that is highly unlikely, unless there is a freak
heatwave.
Haya Landa 250/1 –
seems to like the softer ground, but probably will be a lot closer than the
other big outsiders. Although it is highly unlikely, she might sneak in a place,
but a few more horses need to not be able to handle the ground first.
Solemia 50/1 –
Can certainly handle the softer ground and is pretty consistant. Could in the
mix at the end
Kesampour 33/1–
Now this horse has a chance. The softer the better in my opinion. Ok the horse
has been beaten on his last 2 times out, but that was on good to soft, every
other good performance has been on softer. I can see him going well
Great Heavens 15/2
– Now this filly has a great chance. She is a replacement for her full brother
Nathaniel, but what a replacement she is. Loves the softer ground in my view,
she could now be the horse to beat in this.
My Prediction
1.Great Heavens 15/2
2. Kesampour 33/1
3. Solemia 50/1
4. Orfevre 5/1
Good Luck people and be Lucky
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