14/10/23 2:40 Newmarket - Cesarewitch System
2nd Goshen 14/1 - 65
3rd Not So Sleepy 16/1 - 60
4th Grand Providence 9/1 - 50
As you can see there is a clear winner here, i was surprised as i thought Not So Sleepy was going to come top. But a 50/1 horse! Must be looked at in more detail.
I dont like Ocean Winds weight! with 9st 9lb its a lot to carry over this marathon trip in such testing conditions. He won the Cesarewitch Trail 3 years ago off 13lb lower than today and the going was Good to Firm that day. On the flat his stats on soft are 1, 3. So the ground shouldnt be a problem. He has dropped from an all time high of 112 down to 102. His last 3 races i would probably feel compelled to look past, because the average rated horse in this race is 91, and in those 3 races they are 10 to 20lb higher than today. So this is much easier. He was off the track before coming back after 771 days, and the handicapper was not too generous, and only dropped him 5lb, so i wonder if the next 3 races were purely to drop his mark further. We will find out. He should stay and has stayed. His stall based on trends show that he is in a great place.
Goshen is harder to weigh up as he hasnt run in this calibre of compnay on the flat, but we know how good he can be over over obstacles. I do have a note that he probably prefers right handed tracks, but i guess thats more over obstacles than the flat. He has a lovely low weight though. He is a 5 times winner on soft and a 2 time winner on heavy, so he will love the rain falling. He will stay. My system says dont rule him out, but he will need to find a bit more in this company on the flat.
I thought Not So Sleepy would come first, Like Ocean Wind, he is drawn well but i am concerned slightly with the 9st 9lb he is carrying, apart from that he is a 4 time winner on soft and if it keeps raining it will just enhance his chance as his heavy stats are 2, 1, 1, 1. His stats in this race are 4, 4, 3. He is 4lb higher than his last 3rd here. And all from an inside draw, so this outside draw could help. The other negative apart from the weight is that he is now 11yo and could be found out by some younger horses.
Grand Providence has a lovely weight, but does come here off a career high mark, so needs to improve to win this. He did win the trail but like Ocean Wind it came on different ground and this ground there would be a question mark, he has come 3rd on heavy though. On his 5 runs on the turf he has never been out the top 3, he is so consistant, who knows how far he can go. Defintely not one to igore.
Of the next scorers 5th Pied Pier, 6th Tritonic/Balzeon Five 6th Golden Shot/Geremia/Sheishyrid
I will stick with my system but i do think Not So Sleepy will be up there again
My Selection: Ocean Wind 50/1
Comments
Post a Comment