24/09/22 3:40 Newmarket - The Cambridgeshire

 

1st Bell Rock 16/1 - 60

2nd Forest Falcon 40/1 - 55

3rd Mujtaba 9/2, Lucander 20/1, Majestic Dawn 33/1

This race was a real puzzle to me so i did a system. Now a race like this is very difficult because of the sheer number of runners and there without doubt there will be many hard luck stories. 

Bell Rock came top here but only just. Its a very tight race! He is carrying a very light weight. His stats at Newmarket are 1, 1, 3, 1, 18, 4, 6, 6. He is 6lb lower than when last winnng over C&D in a race of a similar standard. Was also 3rd in this race behind Majestic Dawn 2 years ago and is 6lb lower. His last race he was 3rd to Mujtaba, and is 3lb lower than that day (taking into account jockeys claim etc) he was beaten just under 2L. His best form comes on good ground. I think he could run well here.

Forest Falcon won at Glorious Goodwood but since then has been out of sorts, but his lastrun showed a little spark and you know Mark Johnston likes to win the big handicaps, so you cant underestimate him here. The ground is perfect, as is the trip. He hasnt run well at Newmarket before which is the only concern. 

Mujtaba looks like a horse on the upgrade, i was surprised as i thought he scored the most and didnt. I actually also backed him in the Lincoln as i thought he would win and he really disappointed, then he didnt seem to like Chester, so a track like Newmarket will suit well. Distance fine and so is going, he looks like he could be better than 101. My only niggle is how badly he ran in the Lincoln. There was 22 runners that day, and it was his first time in such a large field. This race has 29, and he could be a horse who doesnt like a big field. I hope im wrong as i do like him

Lucander goes for blinkers first time. He was 11th in this alst year and is 3lb higher. He is a horse who is produced late so needs a lot of luck, probably wants a little rain too. If the blinkers work and he has no issues in running then at a big price he could go well

Majestic Dawn is the highest rating but has a decent amateur onboard to take 7lb off. He won this 2 years ago but is 18lb higher in the handicap. His form at Newmarket is 5, 3, 1, 2, 3. And 1st and 5th in this race. I think personally he needs to come down even more in the handicap, the jockeys claim will help. 

I really like Mujtaba but i worry about his inexperience in big fields like this. If im wrong then great, because he has a massive chance. I will stick with the system and go with Bell Rock who i think if getting a clear run could be there at the end, he is handicapped to go close. 

My Selection: Bell Rock 16/1