17/10/21 3:30 Sedgefield - Durham National - System

 

1st Montanna 3/1 - 50

2nd Silva Eclipse 7/1 - 40

2nd Red Giant 5/1 - 40

2nd Brian Boranha 12/1 - 40

As you can see, this is incredibly close. I thought Red Giant had edged ahead so thats how close it was. 

Montanna is such a consistant horse, and won well over 3m 3f, on good ground at this track!. He stayed on strong that day, and this distance should suit well. He ran well last time out off 118, which he is today, and was 2nd. It was a 13 day turnaround and although he can do quick turnarounds, he might not have been over the 3m 3f run, he has had a while to recover and he should go very well here. He has big claims, and his stats on good are 5, 1, 1, 8, 3, 2, 1, 3, 3, 1, 2, take out the runs over fences on good and its 2, 1, 3, 3, 1, 2. 

Silva Eclipse is a winner here over 3m 2 and a half furlongs on soft ground, so should get this distance. The biggest issue is the ground as his best form is on soft or heavy, but this extra distance might offset that on the good ground as he has plenty of stamina. Still 5lb higher than his last win, but could go well. 

Red Giant looked great in this, as he won last year and this year is 2lb lower! Not worried about previous races as last year he had a few runs before putting in a good one over C&D. And was running a crack in 2018 in this race before the jockey thought a fence was omitted and wasnt, and was rated a massive 130 that day, so he has obvious claims here. 

Brian Boranha has benefitted from the jockeys mistake with Red Giant in 2018 and was left in the lead to take the race, but his other stats in this race are 4th and a 3rd. I would be surprised if he could reverse the form with Red Giant. 

Hewick comes over from Ireland for this race, and is well fancied, he didnt score much because he has it to prove at this distance and ground will be fine. He has top weight, but the jocey claims 7lb. He isnt coming over for a holiday, but the hroses named about have the stats and thats what im after. I will go with Montanna, but Red Giant will run his usual good race here

My Selection: Montanna 3/1


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