28/11/20 3:15 Newcastle - System
2nd Takingrisks 16/1 - 55
3rd Cool Mix 11/1 - 45
4th Yorkhill 33/1 - 40
Brave Eagle tops the system here, and there are a few positives here including the ground which his stats look like this 1, UR, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 3, 1, 1, 5. the 5th was last time out and im guessing he probably would have needed the run there. He is 1lb above his last win which was a Listed race last June on good ground. He has never run here at Newcastle, but 7 of his 9 wins have come left handed and 3 of 5 on a similar track layout. His last race depsite needing the run and coming 5th, there has been a winner and a place already from it, and Secret Investor who won the race, lines up in the 3:00 at Newbury, maybe Brave Eagle can frank the form. Also he wears blinkers for the first time. May ust get him back on track.
Takingrisks won this last year off a mark of 143, he is now 4lb higher. Think you can ignore his last run as he has tended to need a run back after a break (also over hurdles) and this was on heavy ground, although he is a winner on heavy he actually has performed well on good with stats of 1, 3, PU, 2, 5, 1, 2, 1. He is also 2, 6, 1 at the track. He can go well but he has to run a career best to win here, but the fact he has had his wind tinkered with should help.
Cool Mix is a surprise as he hasnt gone this far before.His half siblings have never run this far except one who was a UR and PU. I think the course form is a help with stats of 2, 5, 2, 2, 1. and his chase for here is 2, 2, 1. The track and going are great, and he wont mind a bit of rain, he just needsto prove it up at this distance off a career high mark.
Yorkhill in his day was a Grade 1 winner and won the JLT at Cheltenham. He probably needed his last run for new connections, after being poorly for a while and being nursed back to health. He wears a tongue tie for the first time which may help too, and if he shows even a sparkle of his former self then he hasbig claims. This is his easiest task for a while, he is 12lb lower in the handicap than when he last won, so if he can recaputre that form then he has every chance. Going form is 1, 1, 1, 2, UR, and the track will suit. He is an interesting outsider here.
Pym scored a lowley 25 but is 2nd favourite, and up 4lb when winning last time out, and he loves this going with stats of 2, 1, 2, 2, 2, 1. He will run well as the track and going will suit, but off a career high mark.
My Selection: Brave Eagle 8/1
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