11/07/20 4:10 Newmarket- The Bunbury Cup - System
2nd Mutamaasik 11/2 - 60
2nd Tomfre 12/1 - 60
3rd Vale Of Kent 16/1 - 45
As expected, this race is very close. , there are 3 who scored 40 (Sir Busker, Raising Sands, Muntadab), then 3 on 35 and so on. So its very tight as you would expect.
Saying that, the system seems to agree with the top 2 in the betting, followed by Tomfre who is a much nicerew price.
Motakhayyel won the Buckingham Palace stakes at Ascot, and what comes with winning that is that he is raised 7lb. The postive here is that horses that went to Royal Ascot, 11 of them have won this from 22. The negative! and its quite a negative. No horse who won at Royal Ascot has come on to win this race - but records are there to be broken, its just a big negative. Probably because of the rise in the handicap. And most of those ran in a 1 mile race at Ascot, and drop down in trip here (Raising Sands only horse Sir Busker too but he won) On the plus side though, he is a very lightly raced 4yo, who has won at Newmarket, will like the going, esepcially as its drying out,and 105 may not be his limit yet. He has big claims if the 7lb rise is not too much of a hinderance.
Mutamaasik mist have caused Jim Crowley a headache. You can see why he went with recent winner Motakhayyel, but Mutamaasik is also a lightly raced 4yo, on the up. He was beaten by Motakhayyel in the race at Royal Ascot, but there was only 2L or so between them, and there is a swing in the weights in favour of Mutamaasik, who was 2lb higher than him at Ascot and not finds himself 3lb lower going into this race. Ground should be no issue to him either. Plus on his 2yo debut he came on from the run, just wondering if Mutamassik, may have needed the run more than Motakhayyel. I wouldn't be shocked to see the form of their last race reversed here.
Tomfre missed Ascot, and was last seen coming 2nd at Sandown. The thing is, he possibly could have won that race at Sandown, but was unable to get out, and another stride he would have passed him. I guess the Handicapper thought so as he put him up 4lb, but the winner went up 5lb and is now rated 108. So, it makes me wonder if Tomfre had got room, would he be rated in the hundreds now? Instead he gets in here off 98, and that could mean he is well handicapped. Tomfre is a C&D winner, he will not mind rain in fact i think he would welcome more. He comes here with a big chance,
Vale Of Kent won this last year, but he is 9lb higher now, not that it seems to worry him after his impressive 2ndat Epom to 114 rated horse. I think however he would prefer the ground to dry a little. He was last at Newmarket in a Group 3 and came 7th of 9, that was just a little too hot for him, this is much more his level.
This is a tough race. I hope the winner comes from the top group. I have a feeling the first 3 named will go very well here, obviously this system doesnt take into account horses getting room to race, its a big field and luck is needed. Motakhayyel and Mutamaasik are horses who are up with the pace, where as Tomfre is more likely to need luck as he likes coming off the pace. I will stick with my system here, but i am very concerened about the stat on Royal Ascot. I would not put you off Mutamaasik or Tomfre ew
My Selection: Motakhayyel 5/1 ew (or Mutaamasik 11/2 or Tomfre 12/1 ew)
Comments
Post a Comment