04/07/20 The Derby - 4:55 Epsom System
2nd Serpentine 20/1 - 60
3rd Khalifa Sat 40/1 - 45
4th Pyledriver 16/1 - 40
4th English King 7/2 - 40
4th Vatican City 8/1 - 40
A very close Derby as you can see by just these.
2000gns winner Kameko just heads it. He has done little wrong, already winning 2 Group 1's. The big question mark is the trip, he hasto get an extra half a mile. But it really isnt the strongest of Derbys and he has the class.
Serpentine comes in 2nd here, and its interesting not to have Mogul at the top. Serpentine has to find something here as his last race was a maiden, but he is out of a Derby winner and an Oaks 3rd, so he has potential. He won his maiden by 9L, the cheekpieces worked wonders for this horse, and similar happened the Ruler Of The World! We dont know much about him but the potential is there, takes a good horseto win a nice Maiden like that by so far.
Khalifa Sat needs more, he just won a Listed race after winning a good maiden. But distance will not be an issue with him and why not take part in a open race, he could potentially pick up a place.
Pyledriver doesnt havea great stall, ill explain at the bottom of this. He won well over distance at Royal Ascot, so i can see exactly why he has been sent here. Mohican Heights was well beaten that day, but could be the Mohican Heights wanted slightly firmer ground that day, which he gets here.
English King is a horse i would love to win. I think his trainer is underrated and desrves this. By Camelot, and his dam Platonic has produced 12 winners, 8 of them came over 1m 4f. So this distance is ideal. He won the Trial with ease, now that stats are against them with that becasue despite being a trial it hasnt produced many Derby winnes, ecept last year with Anthony Van Dyck, maybe the tide is turning. He is a horse i want to win, but he also has possibly the worst stall in the race.
Vatican City is not a horse i can have. He has 5 full brother and sisters, including the mighty Gleneagles, Marvellous and Happily. Not one of them has won over 1m - in 8 attempts actually. So im surprised they are going this route with him. He could be there to set the pace. he is 8/1 for his 2nd in the Irish 2000gns, which is good form, but he wont stay. So 8/1 is far too short. Maybe he could pinch a place.
Asi was talking about above - the stalls. Its a big thing. Stall 1 is like a graveyard in the Derby. Because the way of the track, the horse starts off on the outside, but then can get caught against the rail. If the field do not fan out in the home turn then its unlikely the horse can get out. In this case its the first 4 stalls, So English King, Mogul, Pyledriver and Emissary have these stalls, it will take a great ride, a lot of luck and a very good horse to win from these stalls. Not impossible but not easy either. Its for races really with over 10 runners, so the Oaks should not be as bad because there are not the runners. Case in Point - Saxon Warrior stall 1 in 2018 - had nowhere to go. In fact not since 2014 has a stall lower than 5 got into the top 3. Kingston Hill came from Stall 2 that day. The 2012 when Camelot won from Stall 5 but Main Sequence came for Stall 3 into 2nd .Just food for thought.
My Selection: Kameko 9/2 (small ew on Serpentine 20/1 ew)
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