27/06/20 3:35 Newcastle - Northumberland Plate
2nd Rainbow Dreamer 8/1 - 85
3rd Carnwennan 15/2 - 65
4th Denmead 25/1 - 55
4th Anyonecanhaveitall 12/1 - 55
The top 2 here ran away with it a bit, but efore i did this i was fancying Denmead at a very big price. I will tell you my reasons further down.
Smart Champion won over C&D in Feburary and is up 6lb for that run, that day he beat Carnwennan and Carnwennan was put up 2lb for that. There was only half a length in it that day, and it could mean that Carnwennan could turn the tables, but Smart Champion has had a run recently, where as Carnwennan has not, and last time Carnwennan came back after a breat of a similar time, it was over C&D, rated 2lb lower and he came 8th out of 8. So this could mean Smart Champion can use him fitness to his benefit. Also that run was a 4th in the Ascot Stakes, so that was a brilliant run.We know he like Newcastle and he stays. He has every chance.
Rainbow Dreamer is unbeaten (4/4) on Standard to Slow. Only came here once and that was last time out in the Sagaro Stakes, the winner of that went on the come 2nd in the Ascot Gold Cup, also came in front of Kings Advice who has since gone on to place at Listed level. This level is more his thingand i think he has every chance.
Carwennan as discussed above has lack of race fitness on his side, so will come on from this race. He runs well at the track and has great stats with the jockey, only being out the places 3 times in 10 runs.
Denmead is one i was really interested in, he has good solid form on the AW and in fact came 3rd in this race 2 years ago. He runs off the exact same mark, although the only worry is, is the fact his comeback run was in a much lower race and he only managed 4th, not beaten too far, but more is needed here. If recapturing his form 2 years ago, then he could well get in the places at a big price.
Anyonecanhaveitall beat Denmead home last time out, and he is up only 3lb for that run. Denmead was put up 6lb!! which is insane to me but maybe i have missed something. He is another who loves the AW and should go well. He is off a career high mark but he is only 4 so may have more to come.
I am going with my system but i think its between the first 2 here. The favourite only scored 30, a mixture of not running this distance of the track, where as others love it here. You could not rule him out but i am happy to stick with my system
My Selection: Smart Champion 13/2 (small ew on Rainbow Dreamer 8/1)
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