16/06/18 Main Bets
At first he 15lb hike in the handicap looks extremely harsh, and as she only won by 2L, then you have to suspect that it maybe is. HOWEVER, and it really is a big however, it was her debut for the Skeltons, and they seem to have worked wonders. She was back off a 185 days dreak, she beat horses who were race fit.
This is the top 5 of her last race, and this is what they have done since that
1st Mrsrobin 0 runs
2nd Irish Octave 2 runs 2 wins
3rd Goodnight Charlie 2 runs 1 win
4th Heavenly Promise 1 run 1 win
5th What Larks1 run 1 place
That race was a class 5. Irish Octave has won 2 Class 4, and Goodnight Charlie and Heavenly Promise have won Class 5 races.
Mrsrobins highest handicap win was 92, so she is now 8lb higher, but she sticks to a Class 5 race here and this is a very similar level of handicap horses so although carrying top weight, she will have every chance to follow up. Dan and Harry Skelton are in great form as well.
4:05 York Dark Intention 6/1
Dark Intention came 3rd in this last year and is now 5lb lower in the handicap plus his jackey claims 3lb, so she is 8lb better off than last year and was only beaten 2L. Her form at York is 3, 5, 5, 3, 1, 5, 3. based on todays going she is 3, 3.
Her run LTO was 3rd here over 2f shorter in a much better race, where the average runner was rated 83, and this race its 75. She was only beaten 1L. and she steps back up in trip today. Looking at that race proves interesting.
She came 3rd in this race. The winner who beat DI by 2L has since gone on to win a slightly better race, the 5th place Peptita has since won a Listed race, and the 7th place has since gone on to win at that level. With a few placed efforts from other runners. So not a bad race.
Dark Intention goes back here with a big claim of at least placing but looks primed to win. And at 6/1 i am willing to have a ew bet with betting shops offering 1/4 odds and 4 places.
5:40 Hexham Minella Fiveo 8/1
Along the same theme as the other 2, i concentrate on thier last run. He is a little unpredicatble, but he is donw to a winning mark. 2lb up for his last run which i entirely fair. 2m on good ground could be what he wants.
He is rated 104. which is 4lb lower than his last winning run which was over 2m on soft. .
He was well beaten in his last run, but the winner is now rate 119, so he might have a few lbs in hand still. The winner has since gone on to win 2 more races including 1 in a higher class, and his first win after this produce a few winners, so this horse was flying.
The horse just behind MF has since gone on to win and place. 7th has since one once, and 8th twice, and even further down 14th and 15th have also gone on to win, with many placing inbetween. Thats a pretty hot race there and makes him very interesting.
He is handicapped to win, will like the trip and going. He is risky because he has only once strung a few good runs together, but lets hope he does today.
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