Tips for 26/3/13

Calculating is todays risky Nap

3:40 Fontwell - Wild Ground 11/4
4:30 Southwell - Jacobs Son 2/1
4:40 Fontwell - Chestnut Ben 13/8
5:00 Southwell - Calculating 20/1 e/w (nap)- £135

£40 stake - £135 returns = £95 profit

Todays Nap

5:00 Southwell - Calculating 20/1 e/w

I have picked a very risky nap tomorrow and i do advise caution. But i will explain the reasons why i have picked the horse. Firstly 9 runners, so bookies will be paying top 3. But here are my main reasons behind my choice.

Of his 9 wins 5 of those have been at Southwell. If i have worked it out correctly he has run 28 times in all at the track, has won 5 times and placed an incredible 16 times. So that's 21 times out of 28 he has been in the frame.

Of all those runs and wins his stats over C&D are 3*, 1*, 1**, 2*, 2*, 6* (* in a higher class than today) all were in a class higher and one of the wins marked ** was 2 classes higher.

His lowest handicap mark over C&D is 64, today he carries 52.
His lowest weight over C&D was 9st when he won - today he carries 8st 13lb

His 6th over course and distance was in a class higher, carrying 9st 9lb and a handicap of 68, then he was injured and had been off the track for a year, when he came back it was at Southwell but it was over 1m4f, far too short, but it was obvious he needed the run. The other 2 runs have been disappointing but he has been off the track a while and i think 2 miles is just about right, and a drop in class will help him. There are a few horses in here that should go well, Scribe looks good but his win was when carrying 8st 8lb today he is carrying 12lb more plus his handicap mark is 5lb higher too. Cecily Parsley is unproven on this surface and Neighbourhood is unproven at 2 miles, Lakota Ghost is also unproven over 1m 4f.

My only worry is that after his break he has lost his enthusiasm for racing at Southwell.