12/03/24 2:50 Cheltenham - Ultima Chase System

 

1st Lord Du Mesnil 40/1 - 50

1st Monbeg Genius 14/1 - 50

2nd The Goffer 6/1 - 45

3rd Famous Bridge 16/1 - 40

3rd Weveallbeencaught 14/1 - 40

As expected with a race like this, its very close. 2 horses topped the list here. Monbeg Genius has cheekpieces for the first time. He was 3rd in the race last year, and unfortunately is 7lb higher since then, so does need to find extra here, but then the answer could be the cheekpieces. He has won twice on soft so the ground shouldnt be an issue. If the Cheekpieces work then we cannot ignore him

Lord Du Mesnil's stats at Cheltenham over fences are 2, 2, 2. and 2 of those were on soft, one of those was the National Hunt Chase over 3m 6f, so we know the ground will not be an issue and neither will the distance. He is 5lb lower than 2 of those 2nds, and i think there is a lot to like. Out of Lord Du Mesnil and Monbeg Genius,  8 year olds do a lot better so Monbeg Genius looks the more likely, however, 2 11 years have won this recently so its not out of the question.

The Goffer has one question mark in my mind, and that is, although he has won on heavy and soft, its never been over this far, in fact he won last time out on Heavy over 2m.He has 11st 8lb to carry, it just creates a question mark with him. Saying all that, he was 4th in this last year and is 2lb better off, that was on soft that day. So he is not without a chance, but his price is probably a little too skinny. Also, this is a race the Irish have never won, can they break that record?

Famous Bridge loves the going, loves the distance, is 10lb higher than his last win but he could go very well here. 

Weveallbeencaught has a very low weight and a tongue tie fitted for the first time. His stats around here are 3, 1, 7, 3, 2, 6. He was 2nd over C&D to the very well thought of Broadway Boy in November. Im guessing you could probably ignore his last run as this time the tongue tie has been fitted. He could go well if back to his November form

I am sticking with my system and like both the 1st placed horses. 

My Selection = Lord Du Mesnil 40/1 ew & Monbeg Genius 14/1 ew


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