15/04/18 A Couple Of Bets

4:30 Plumpton - Howlongisafoot 11/2 (Corals/Ladbrokes)

This is a risky one, but at his peak this boy was rated 141 over fences, he is now a low 93. At his peak he was mixing it in Class 2 company, today its a class 5 handicap.

His last win was back in March last year rated 111, he won by 28L that day, and since then has showed little. One thing i noticed, they took the blinkers and run him over mostly shorter distances. He has blinkers on again, and it could make him sharper, which a step up in distance and a drop in class, he could run well.

He has never run at this track, however it should be ok for him. Possibly better on better ground, but its good in places and i am happy with that. His best form has come thins time of year with stats of  1, 1, 1, 2, 2. only 1 was on heavy (2nd) the rest were on good or good-soft)

Im willing to give him a chance today at an ew price

5:15 Cork Intense Stylist 12/1 (William Hill)

She will love the heavy going, her stats on heavy are 3, 16, 1, 3, 3. She came here last year off a break over further in a much better race where the average rating of runners were 70, todays race is shorter which i think is a real bonus as 7f looks like her distance on heavy. Her rivals are rated 53 on average. If you go back a further year, on her seasonal debut, she went a close second off 2lb higher than today, carrying the same weight, and the average runner in that race was 57, so this is easier than that. She have good ew chance - as long as she is fit enough. That is the onyl risk, how fit they have her.

Its a race where not much has any kind of form. Dressednblack might be one who has a noteworthy jockey of the inform Chris Hayes.

4:00 Tramore Cappacurry Zak 7/2

A small win bet on this one, only because he beat Paper Lantern last time out by 11L and Paper Lantern ran a corker at Aintree this week in a Grade 3. CZ was put up just 6lb for his win, and the fact Paper Lantern also won a better race before Aintree has really franked the form. He could be well in today dispite being on a all high mark.  He is stepping back in distance here which shouldn't worry as he has run well over shorter, the big thing is he will have the stamina for this heavy ground


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